CHICAGO, September 9, 2026 – Five minutes passed while Maria studied the notice. Then she made some calls, not regarding rent, but the safety of going into the mall in Oak Lawn. Finally, she just ordered their groceries online instead. Three hours, no call back from her cousin. This is when Maria realized that so many other people did the same thing.
According to a recent study from the University of Illinois Chicago, this cautiousness cost retailers and restaurants approximately $1.26 billion since the increase in federal immigration enforcement in the area early this year. The report, titled “Hunkering Down,” traces how fear altered everyday movement — and, in turn, drained cash from Main Streets and strip malls alike.
At UIC’s Great Cities Institute, researchers used anonymous cell phone traffic data and Census expenditure information to measure the number of shopping and eating trips prior to and after the intensification of enforcement in January 2025. They concluded that residents of the communities with relatively higher proportions of Latin America-born individuals had 25 million fewer visits to businesses outside their community. Cross-community visits to retail businesses in low-Latin America-born neighborhoods declined by approximately 9%, while visits to restaurants declined by roughly 10%.
But the point is that the shift in spending was not confined to closer neighborhoods. Increased business activity did not take place in high-Latin America-born neighborhoods in the required amount to compensate for other places’ loss. What follows is the foregone business — the lost economic opportunity that the neighborhoods are deprived of in addition to the lost sales tax revenue of $107 million for the county.
Most affected by the problem were the suburbs, where cross-community retail trips were reduced by 12.8% outside Chicago and only by 6.2% inside the city. The pattern remained even after the operation called “Operation Midway Blitz” finished.
The store Supermercado El Ranchito in the Southwest Side area has been around for 30 years. Currently, there are fewer customers in the aisles. The store manager, Yadira Rojo, has stated that she tends to monitor social media when there is downtime in the store to check for ICE presence. “I have heard from family and close ones born here who say they do not feel safe because they think that because of your appearance you can be detained,” Rojo said in Spanish.
According to Angelina Mendez, who is the owner of La Chaparrita Grocery, Little Village has lost over half of its Latino customers. “There are customers that do not come anymore and those that do come, come less frequently. The customers are scared,” she said. “At this moment, this is the new normal.”
Street vendors tell the same tale. Juana Morales, who has been selling produce in Brighton Park for almost two decades, stated that she orders only half the tomatoes that she used to because of raids that have reduced her customers. “We would like for this to end,” Morales said. “Because not only do they affect business but they are also destroying families.”
Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle said the findings underscore how enforcement “did more than inflict fear and trauma on our immigrant neighbors; it created significant disruption to our local economy and hurt businesses and workers across Cook County.” The report, she noted, “puts a dollar figure to a cost on the real consequences of policies that drive families into their homes and away from their communities.”
A senior associate director at the Great Cities Institute and a co-author of the study, Matt Wilson, said simply enough: “Residents made substantially fewer trips to businesses elsewhere in the county, and that sustained decline meant fewer customers for businesses and less commercial activity across Cook County.”
Worse yet, the true damage might be even higher. The study excludes unrecorded cash sales and informal home-based operations—sectors hit particularly hard. For instance, street vendors have reported lower sales despite being somewhat excluded from the analysis. The Street Vendors Association of Chicago has collected $700,000.
It’s not clear when or whether consumption levels will eventually recover. DHS refused to comment on the findings of the report, restating its position that there is no connection between “illegal immigration and a good economy.” In the meantime, local officials insist that they will continue to push for policies that allow people to work, shop, and travel without fear.
Mathematically speaking, the equation is easy enough: less travel, fewer tabs, less tax revenue. And in areas that were once bustling during dinnertime, the quiet is costly.
