CHICAGO, Illinois, September 28, 2026 — The arrival of hungry ospreys this summer didn’t appear to miss their mark — killing so few chicks in some areas along the East Coast that it raised concerns among biologists. A survey of 2,886 nesting pairs at 65 study areas in the 10 Atlantic states found near-complete failure in saltwater regions. The study was published this month by researchers at William & Mary’s Center for Conservation Biology.
What the Survey Found
In brinier Chesapeake Bay waters, 81% of pairs nesting in 2026 failed to raise a single chick. An average of only one chick was produced by four pairs between them. That is well below the level needed to replace the population.
More than 93 percent of freshwater areas produced sufficient young to replace lost individuals, compared with just 28 percent for saltwater studies. Those deficits extend from the Chesapeake through Delaware and New Jersey to Long Island and southern New England. Watts associates the trend with the availability of menhaden in saline waters, where ospreys rely on the fish heavily.
A report by the center released September 14, 2023, said the breeding season for blue crabs this year was also the worst recorded in decades in the Chesapeake. From March through August, nine agencies, universities and nonprofits monitored 937 pairs in 23 areas. All Baywide nest checks commenced there in 2024.
The Menhaden Question
Atlantic menhaden, which are water weighed-down less-than-a-foot long silver, oily fish, are the largest food source for Chesapeake ospreys. Chicks are starving in their nests, according to Bryan Watts, who directs the center. Another possible indicator of food stress, he says, is that female ospreys have also been laying fewer eggs.
A 2024 study published in Frontiers in Marine Science associated an ongoing decline of ospreys since the 1980s to the decreased availability of menhaden. Watts called the evidence a powerful correlation, not causal proof that commercial harvest was responsible for the failures. The part angling should play in Western endeavors to deal with record populations is the subject of a pitched quarrel.
In 2022, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission determined that menhaden are not overfished on the Atlantic coast. A firm which manages a menhaden fishery noted: “blaming it is simply not an adequate answer for a complex problem”. It indicates water conditions, other prey predators and changes in habitat.
Menhaden are food for striped bass and other predators, so a lack would extend beyond ospreys. Anglers and conservationists contend that the wider food web would benefit from more fish being left in the water. The fishing industry called the picture more nuanced.
Why the Decline Matters
The largest osprey population in the world (10,000 to 12,000 breeding pairs) lives in the Chesapeake. Within the era of DDT, ospreys were scarce in parts of the East Coast. The conservation success story that followed — their recovery after the 1972 pesticide ban.
In the Chesapeake report, Watts cautioned that ospreys throughout the bay could decline by 50 percent in 10 years if nothing changes. He described the low rates of reproduction as unsustainable. U.S. Geological Survey scientist Barnett Rattner also has informed regulators that osprey nesting can be severely hindered by limited food, disease, climate and water quality.
Ospreys have faced trouble before. State wildlife records indicated that DDT contaminated eggshells and lowered nesting success in New Jersey around the middle of the 20th century. But following curbs on the use of the pesticide and a dip in levels in fish and eggs, numbers recovered.
What Comes Next
Anglers and conservationists are calling on fishery managers to reduce the menhaden harvest by commercial fishermen in the Chesapeake. The decisions are left to a coastwide regulatory board and states with allocations. According to a report conducted by the Audubon Society, researchers are tracking the birds.
For once, it is not chemicals — scientists specify hormones this time — that account for the death, but hunger. Each new season of nest checks contributes to the record that they can compare on a year by year basis. That is important, however the data could help managers predict if better fish stocks mean chicks or not.
