CHICAGO, Illinois, October 30, 2026 — The 2026 holiday shopping season is expected to be one of the biggest in history, despite the fact that a large percentage of households will spend less this year. Forecasts for online sales predict they could top out at $275.1 billion during the two-month period from November 1st through December 31st. Consumers are also looking for discounts more carefully than they did in prior years, according to consumer survey data.
Record Spending, Cautious Shoppers
Holiday spending on the internet will increase by approximately 6.7 percent compared to the previous year. This growth can be attributed to strong promotions that took place during the early part of the holiday season. Cyber Monday is still estimated to be the largest single online shopping event, as consumers are expected to spend more than $15 billion over the course of 24 hours. However, Black Friday has experienced significantly higher growth this year than in past years due to many stores offering discounts much earlier than they have in the past.
In contrast to the record-setting forecast, there are two distinct surveys indicating that most Americans will either spend about the same amount of money on holidays as they did in the previous year, or possibly a little bit less. A highly publicized study indicated that consumers are projecting a decrease in their holiday budget of approximately 5.5 percent from 2025. This decrease in spending is indicative of ongoing economic struggles; however, at the same time, total online spending has continued to rise.
Discount Skepticism Is Rising
Shoppers seem less likely today than they were in previous years to take advertised discounts at face value. Only a very low percentage of the consumers polled stated that the advertised savings represented the full value of the product, according to new research conducted by Simon-Kucher. The shopper’s skepticism is causing retailers to provide shoppers with a credible sense of value instead of providing only large percentage-off signs.
The most recent changes to the way that Amazon controls the prices of items sold on its platform include new requirements for merchants to provide evidence of the number of units they sold at a certain price (reference price). These changes took place prior to the holiday shopping season, reflecting a larger movement in the retail sector towards increased transparency regarding pricing. If retailers are unable to demonstrate that their discounts were actual discounts based upon sales data, then they will likely lose consumer confidence in a market place where consumers have many options available.
Essentials Join the Gift List
Many holiday shoppers have been using seasonal promotions to buy their daily necessities, not just gifts. Sales of personal hygiene items online are expected to increase dramatically during Cyber Week compared to what they typically would be at that time of year (September). This change indicates that many families are taking advantage of holiday discounts to help ease some of their household costs.
Electronics and clothing are the two largest spending areas overall, with their combined total estimated at over $100 billion in projected online sales. The use of “Buy Now Pay Later” options will continue to grow through the holidays due to consumers’ interest in paying off holiday expenses over time. This indicates that this year’s holiday season will be defined as much by financial planning as by the traditions of giving gifts.
AI Tools Reshape the Shopping Journey
During the holiday season, artificial intelligence (AI) has become a popular method for consumers to conduct research and make comparisons when purchasing items. Close to 50% of those surveyed stated that they intended to utilize AI-based tools for comparing prices and finding products as part of their holiday shopping experience. Despite the popularity of AI, many consumers are still unwilling to allow AI to purchase items for them without direct supervision.
Retailers are adapting to this change by using digital tools that can reach shoppers earlier in the decision-making process instead of relying on just one promotional weekend. Initial research indicates that most consumers will start their holiday shopping prior to Black Friday. It appears that the 2026 holiday shopping season will be beneficial to both U.S. shoppers and retailers who use planning, comparison, and verification of value over a longer and more competitive shopping period.
Consumers are increasingly taking into consideration the amount of time it takes for items to arrive at their doorsteps as well as how reliably retailers deliver those products. Research has shown that offering the best possible price on an item does not guarantee a purchase if delivery times or returns policies do not live up to expectations. Retailers who do not meet consumer demand for faster and more reliable shipping will lose customers despite having competitive pricing.
Social Commerce Platforms will play a more significant part in consumers’ holiday spending habits than ever before. Consumers are using livestreaming events, and influencers’ promotions to find both fun and discounts. This change is indicating that the holiday shopping period has transitioned from being one specific event to a continuous multi-channel experience that lasts for weeks.
