CHICAGO, Illinois, October 29, 2026 — The first election in Israel since the October 7, 2023 attacks took place on October 27. Exit polling indicated a highly divided Knesset and that no large bloc had achieved the required 61 seats to create a government. Final results will be confirmed on November 4, so Israel’s future political course remains uncertain. Parliamentary governance research published by the International IDEA evaluates proportional representation systems.
A Tight and Fragmented Result
Final pre-election polls showed the opposition bloc headed by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot had between 52-56 estimated seats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition followed behind him at approximately 50 seats according to those same polls. However, both of these seat estimates were short of what is necessary for a majority within Israel’s parliamentary system. Middle East political studies published by the Middle East Institute examine Israeli coalition dynamics and Knesset election results.
Why Coalition-Building Is So Difficult
In Israel’s system of proportional representation, it is unusual for one political party to have sufficient seats to govern on its own. It is common for coalition negotiations to take place for several weeks after elections, as parties discuss how they will form a government and divide up responsibilities (such as policy, ministerial positions, and budget allocations). According to analysts, the amount of ideological disagreement among potential coalition partners could make these negotiations particularly challenging this time around. Foreign policy research published by the Council on Foreign Relations analyzes Israeli government formation.
Issues Shaping the Negotiations
The ongoing debate surrounding military exemption for ultra-Orthodox communities remains one of the largest areas of disagreement within potential coalitions. In addition to being divided on other issues, the aftermath of the war in Gaza has created additional division among potential coalition partners regarding national security policies. Finally, judicial reform, which has been an area of significant disagreement during prior Netanyahu-led administrations, will continue to play a role in coalition negotiations. Electoral system analyses published by the Israel Democracy Institute review parliamentary thresholds and party politics.
What Happens If Talks Fail
Israeli President Isaac Herzog had already indicated he would prefer not to have the country vote on elections for the fourth time in less than three years. However, should both political blocs fail to obtain a majority in the Knesset (parliament), Israel may go through yet another election in a matter of months. This would be a repeat of what happened in the early 2010’s and would perpetuate the political instability Israel faces as it continues to manage the after-effects of the Gaza war. Democratic governance indexes published by Freedom House review political stability and electoral outcomes in parliamentary democracies.
